Treasury yields surge as investors grapple with economic data void
U.S. Treasury yields experienced a notable ascent on Friday, mirroring investors' ongoing struggle to navigate the absence of economic data due to the government shutdown. At 5:12 a.m. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield soared by over 1 basis point, reaching 4.108%, while the 2-year note yield climbed 1 basis point to 3.576%. The 30-year bond yield also rose by 1 basis point, settling at 4.704%.
A basis point represents a minuscule 0.01%, and in the world of yields and prices, they move in opposite directions. The nonfarm payrolls report, a pivotal economic indicator, was scheduled for release on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the government shutdown has now prevented its release for the second consecutive month.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had anticipated a decline of 60,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. Yet, investors are now turning to alternative data sources for insights. A survey from Challenger, Gray & Christmas revealed a startling surge in job cuts in October, totaling 153,074, which is triple the September figure and an astonishing 183% monthly increase. This figure is also a staggering 175% higher than the same period in the previous year.
The October layoffs represent the highest number of layoffs for any October since 2003, and 2025 stands as the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009, according to the Challenger survey. This data blackout has left investors in a state of uncertainty, prompting them to seek alternative indicators to gauge the economic landscape.
